What happens when a small country is cut off from global finance, trade networks and investment flows in an increasingly interconnected world?
This week development economist Emily Morris breaks down the massive impact of the U.S. economic war on Cuba in an interview with Belly of the Beast journalist Liz Oliva Fernández.
“If the U.S. were to lift sanctions, the Cuban economy, within five years, would be prosperous,” Morris says.
Also this week:
Lawmakers Denied Meeting with Top U.S. Diplomat
Cuba Confirms Havana Talks with Trump Administration
“Vida”: A Community Project Helping Kids in Cuba’s Crisis
Amid Shortages, Cuba Marks 65 Years of Socialism
U.S. Military Drone Flies Along Cuban Coast
Spain, Mexico and Brazil Commit to Help Cuba
Grenada Stands by Cuban Doctors
Belly of the Beast Recommends
U.S. Sanctions: “Deliberate Sabotage”
Cuba’s devastating economic crisis has dominated headlines in recent months — but much of the coverage leaves out crucial context.
Corporate media outlets often fail to look beyond the recent U.S. oil blockade while Cuba’s economic collapse is attributed to Communism or economic mismanagement. Sanctions get only passing mention or are airbrushed out completely. For example, an op-ed by U.S.-based Cuban economist Ricardo Torres published Thursday in Time, doesn’t mention the embargo, sanctions or the blockade even once.
A close look at when Cuba’s economy began to decline reveals a different story.
In an interview with Belly of the Beast journalist Liz Oliva Fernández, British economist Emily Morris explains how the precipitous economic downturn maps directly onto the ramping up of the U.S. government’s economic war on the island that began during Donald Trump’s first term.
“This current crisis definitely started in 2019,” said Morris.
As we documented in 2020 in our award-winning series The War on Cuba, Trump imposed a wave of “maximum pressure” measures targeting Cuba’s access to foreign currency.
“There wasn’t enough fuel,” said Morris. “And the economy started to go down.”
For Morris, U.S. sanctions are not just one factor among many — they are “deliberate sabotage” of the Cuban economy and the central driver of the crisis. Their effects go far beyond limiting trade with the United States. They also shut out Cuba from the international financial system, which contributed to the country's inability to recover from the Covid-19 pandemic.
At the same time, the U.S. imposed measures that brought U.S. visitors to the island to a near total halt while greatly reducing tourism from Europe.
“Cuba was hit very, very hard like the rest of the Caribbean, when tourism collapsed or disappeared during Covid,” said Morris. “But the other countries in the region have actually recovered. They bounced back because the tourists came back as soon as the flights were restored, whereas that hasn't happened in Cuba.”
The implementation of Title III of the Helms-Burton Act (read more about that HERE) and Cuba’s designation as a “State Sponsor of Terrorism” deter foreign companies and banks from engaging with the country. Even when transactions are legal, the risk of steep fines or jeopardizing access to the U.S. market keeps many potential investors and partners away.
“They’re making rational business decisions,” said Morris. “Why risk U.S. business for a small market like Cuba?”
On the island, scarcities have fueled public frustration and suspicion about where state revenue is going. But Morris pushes back on the idea that resources are being siphoned off.
“The reality is that there is no money,” she said.
Morris also points to the heavy financial burden carried by Cuba’s socialist system. Unlike most countries, Cuba maintains extensive public services and a broad social safety net, including free healthcare and education, cultural and sports programs, and subsidized food and electricity. These are long-standing commitments, but they come at a high cost.
“Sustaining those things is very expensive,” Morris explains, especially in a context where revenue streams are being squeezed.
Still, Morris sees a path forward — if U.S. policy changes.
“If the U.S. were to lift sanctions,” she said, “the Cuban economy, within five years, would be prosperous.”
Lawmakers Denied Meeting with Top U.S. Diplomat
Marco Rubio’s State Department prohibited Chargé d’Affaires Mike Hammer, the top U.S. diplomat in Havana, from meeting with Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-WA) and Rep. Jonathan Jackson (D-IL) during their recent visit to Havana, the legislators said in a letter to Rubio on Wednesday.
The letter explains that although an official appointment with Hammer was scheduled, he later told them that “Department leadership directed him not to meet Members or brief them over the phone.”
The representatives are asking Rubio for an explanation for this action, which represents “a troubling departure from long-standing norms of cooperation (...) in the conduct of American foreign policy.”
Jayapal and Jackson visited Havana in their capacity as members of the House Foreign Affairs Committee. Upon returning to the U.S., they released a statement criticizing Trump’s oil blockade, which they called “cruel collective punishment.”
They are demanding “copies of any formal or informal communication or directives,” as well as “who issued the directive, when it was issued, and whether it was written or verbal.”
“Given the ongoing negotiations between the Trump Administration and the Cuban government and threats from President Trump to ‘take’ Cuba, denying members of the House Foreign Affairs Committee access to embassy officials sends a troubling message that the Administration is attempting to block voices that disagree with it,” the statement reads.
The letter is also signed by four other Democratic members of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, including its ranking member Rep. Gregory Meeks (D-NY).
Watch our interview with Jayapal and Jackson in Havana during their visit HERE.
Cuba’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs confirmed Monday that officials from the island and the Trump administration recently held meetings in Havana.
News of the meetings had been reported by Axios’ Marc Caputo, sourcing a senior State Department official who told him “the island's ruling elites have a small window to make key U.S. backed reforms before circumstances irreversibly worsen.”
Cuba's General Deputy Director for U.S. Affairs Alejandro García del Toro denied any ultimatum was issued.
“Neither side set deadlines or made any coercive demands as U.S. media outlets have echoed,” García del Toro said in a statement. “All exchanges took place respectfully and professionally.”
According to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the delegations were headed by “assistant secretaries from the U.S. State Department” and “a Cuban delegation led by a deputy minister of foreign relations.”
Axios’ report listed alleged Trump administration demands, including compensation for property nationalized during the Cuban revolution, the release of “political prisoners” and greater political freedoms on the island.
Cuban Ambassador to the UN Ernesto Soberón Guzmán told AP Thursday that internal affairs, including discussions about the release of detainees, “are not on the negotiating table.”
AP cited a State Department statement in response: “The Cuban regime should stop playing games as direct talks are occurring. They have a small window to make a deal.”
A Community Project Helping Kids in Cuba’s Crisis
Amid a severe economic crisis, a group of residents on the outskirts of Havana has come together to provide a space for children to learn, play and feel supported in a neighborhood where opportunities are scarce.
Meteorologist Natalia Quintana, who founded the project, says conditions in Arroyo Naranjo were never good. But the situation now is worse than ever. “Right now, we are on the verge of desperation," she said.
Yet Natalia and her neighbors continue to organize, to teach and to create spaces that sustain their community — especially for its youngest members — striving for a future not defined solely by crisis.
Watch our video about Natalia and her community project — "Vida" — HERE.
Hundreds of Cubans gathered last week in Havana to mark the 65th anniversary of Fidel Castro’s declaration of the socialist character of the Cuban Revolution.
Iván Domínguez Rivera, a sugar industry union leader, described the event as an affirmation of national unity at a time of economic hardship and renewed threats from Washington.
Participants also condemned the U.S. government’s economic warfare, intensified in recent months by fuel restrictions that have deepened shortages.
A U.S. military surveillance drone flew off Cuba’s coast for several hours last week, USA Today and other media outlets have reported based on data from Flightradar24, a flight tracking service. The flight took more than six hours and circled in holding patterns near Havana and Santiago de Cuba.
The MG-4C Triton can spend 24 hours in the air and reach over 50,000 feet, well above commercial flight altitude. Each drone costs over $200 million. The same type of drone recently crashed in Iran, according to Navy data. A Flightradar24 spokesman told USA Today that similar drones were tracked around Venezuela as U.S. forces prepared for the abduction of President Nicolás Maduro.
Spain, Mexico and Brazil Commit to Help Cuba
The presidents of Spain, Mexico and Brazil issued a joint statement expressing their concern for Cuba’s humanitarian crisis and committing to ramp up a “coordinated response.”
The statement comes after the IV Summit in Defense of Democracy, which gathered progressive leaders from several countries in Barcelona on Saturday.
Mexico has already been sending aid to Cuba in recent months and its president Claudia Sheinbaum said Monday she’s looking to expand investment as well.
“We reiterate the need to respect International Law at all times, as well as the principles of territorial integrity, sovereign equality, and the peaceful settlement of disputes, as enshrined in the Charter of the United Nations,” the statement reads.
During the Summit, Brazilian president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva said he was worried about Cuba, but that the island's issues were “for the Cubans to resolve. It’s not up to Lula, Claudia or Trump.” He also called on the U.S. to “stop that damn blockade of Cuba and let Cubans live their lives.”
Grenada Stands by Cuban Doctors
Grenada’s Prime Minister Dickon Mitchell on Monday expressed support for Cuba’s medical missions, saying the doctors “have a friend and home” in Grenada, Caribbean Life reported.
Mitchell’s words follow an unprecedented pressure campaign from the United States to force countries out of medical agreements with Cuba. So far, around ten countries have caved to the pressure.
Despite Mitchell’s support, Grenada was also forced to find a middle ground.
In October, Grenada announced “important changes” to Cuba’s medical mission there, including direct payments to the doctors, replacing the previous agreement by which payment was channeled through the Cuban government.
Grenadian officials and their families had their U.S. visas removed last year for their “complicity” in what the U.S. has called “forced labor" despite the fact that Cuban doctors and nurses volunteer to go on medical missions and are paid salaries many times higher than what they earn at home.
Grenada’s Finance Minister Dennis Cornwall, who studied in Cuba in the 1980s, was confirmed as one of the officials. The identities of the others have not been disclosed.
Belly of the Beast Recommends
Lee Schlenker breaks down in Responsible Statecraft how a U.S.-Cuba deal seems to be taking shape despite Trump’s threats.
As Trump threatens military action against Cuba, Peter Kornbluh writes in The Nation about the failed Bay of Pigs invasion on its 65th anniversary.
DON'T MISS: Teresita's Dream in New York City
Don't miss the official premiere of our latest documentary Teresita’s Dream in New York City.
The film, which tells the inspiring story of Dr. Teresita Rodríguez, the Cuban scientist who helped develop a groundbreaking treatment for Alzheimer's, will screen at the Havana Film Festival New York on Sunday, May 3, at 1pm ET, at Quad Cinema in Manhattan (34 W. 13th St, New York, NY 10011).
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Boletines en Español | English Newsletters Archives Durante más de seis décadas, la política de Estados Unidos hacia Cuba no se ha basado en la diplomacia, sino en la guerra económica. Esta semana, Alfred de Zayas, un abogado cubanoamericano que trabajó en la Oficina del Alto Comisionado de las Naciones Unidas para los Derechos Humanos, conversa con Belly of the Beast sobre cómo y por qué la política de Estados Unidos hacia Cuba —incluso antes del reciente bloqueo petrolero— viola el derecho...
English Newsletters Archives | Boletines en Español For more than six decades, U.S. policy toward Cuba has been based not on diplomacy but on economic warfare. This week, Alfred de Zayas, a Cuban-American lawyer who worked in the Office of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, speaks to Belly of the Beast about how and why U.S. policy toward Cuba — even before the recent oil blockade — violates international law. Also: Trump Administration Beats the Drums of War Miami Herald Funds Dodgy,...
Boletines en Español | English Newsletters Archives Los representantes Pramila Jayapal (D-WA) y Jonathan Jackson (D-IL) viajaron a Cuba recientemente, ofreciendo una evaluación inusualmente directa de la política de Estados Unidos. Tras reunirse con cubanos de todo el espectro político y visitar un hospital afectado por el bloqueo petrolero impuesto por Trump, describieron la política estadounidense en términos contundentes, equiparándola a una forma de guerra contra el pueblo cubano. La...
